Forecasting the Exchange Rates of the Iraqi Dinar against the US Dollar using the Time Series model (ARIMA)

Authors

  • Dr. Alaa Kadhim Farhan Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, Imam Jafar Sadiq University/College of Management Science, IRAQ
  • Mstfa Rasool Fakhir Lecturer, Department of Business Administration, Imam Jafar Sadiq University/College of Management Science, IRAQ

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.31033/ijemr.9.6.8

Keywords:

Currency Exchange Rate, Iraqi Dinar, US Dollar, Time Series, Foreign Exchange

Abstract

Estimating the exchange rate is considered a key tool for economic planning and reaching economic stability. This study aims to reach the best model for predicting exchange rates of Iraqi Dinar against the U.S. dollar in the period (2008-2017). For this purpose the following methods have been adopted: - Time-series analysis using the Box – Jenkins approach.

                Forecasts obtained from the two models were compared using both mean of the absolute values of the errors (MAE) and the square root of the mean square error (RMSE). The ARIMA (1,1,1) model produced the best forecasts and it can be used as a reliable method of estimating the exchange rate of any foreign currency.

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Published

2019-12-31

How to Cite

Dr. Alaa Kadhim Farhan, & Mstfa Rasool Fakhir. (2019). Forecasting the Exchange Rates of the Iraqi Dinar against the US Dollar using the Time Series model (ARIMA). International Journal of Engineering and Management Research, 9(6), 50–55. https://doi.org/10.31033/ijemr.9.6.8